Week 3 kicks off with an AFC North grudge match between the Steelers and the Browns. Both teams are coming off losses in Week 2 although the Browns loss was a bit more devastating. Which team gets back on track Thursday Night? Let’s find out.

The Spread: Browns -4.5

I think it’s time I get back to my roots. I’ve been leaning heavy on the favorites with the last few picks I’ve made and it’s about time I get back to picking dogs. I think this will be a close game and I like the fact that I get more than a field goal as a cushion taking the Steelers here. The Browns will also be without Jadeveon Clowney and potentially Myles Garrett as well. My only worries picking the Steelers are that they’ve had trouble with the run and the offense hasn’t moved the ball well through two weeks. My first concern worries me a bit more though. Nick Chubb is second in the league in rushing through two games and Kareem Hunt has over 100 yards as well. If the Steelers defense can slow down the Browns rushing attack in any way and force Jacoby Brissett to throw more it’ll only benefit them. Turnovers are going to be key for the Steelers too. If they are able to win the turnover battle and give Mitchell Trubisky and their offense shorter fields to work with I think they can win the game. The same is true the other way as well. If Trubisky can take care of the ball it bodes well for Pittsburgh. This line was as high as 5.5 at one point and has come down as the majority of the bets and the money are coming in on Pittsburgh. I think either team can win here and my guess is it will be within a field goal. That means the Steelers cover either way so you know what the play is.

The Play: Steelers +4.5

Over/Under 38.5

I’m going to keep rolling with the trends on this one. The under is 6-1 in primetime this season and 22-10 overall. This is a low number, but I think the Steelers are going to be an under team this year. Their style of play lends to it. They’re going to move the ball slowly with run plays and short passes. They also play good defense and will stick around in a lot of close games because of it. The picks for this one are slightly more on the over, but the money is on the under at 63%. It isn’t incredibly encouraging, but I haven’t been on my game with overs this year so I’m going to fade myself and take the under here.

The Play: Under 38.5

Final Prediction

With my earlier predictions of Steelers +4.5 and Under 38.5 give me the Steelers 17-16.