Welcome to my NFL Week 2 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. I finished 3-2 in Week 1 so here’s to another positive card in Week 2.

Favorite

Packers (-10) vs. Bears

I’m going to do something here that I hate and that’s take a double digit favorite. I just can’t possibly see the Packers playing as poorly as they did last week again. There is precedent for this too. If you remember last year the Packers got absolutely demolished by the Saints 38-3 in Week 1. They then came into Week 2 as double digit favorites against the Lions on Monday Night and covered. This feels like an eerily similar scenario. I know the offensive line is a question with both Tackles on the injury report and, of course, the fact that Aaron Rodgers has nobody throw to. Again though, I can’t help but feel like they run away with this game. Then you look at the Bears who are riding high off of an upset of the 49ers last week. They are in PRIME position for a letdown spot here. Especially because they just aren’t a good team. The other odd thing is while 74% of the wagers have been placed on the Bears the Packers have seen 77% of the money. The sharps know something the general public doesn’t and I’m going to roll with them and back the team poised for a blowout. On the road at Lambeau on Sunday Night Football has all the makings for Aaron Rodgers to put on a show and, let’s not forget how much he loves to embarrass the Bears. Give me the Packers by 17.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Saints (+2.5) vs. Buccaneers

I know that Tom Brady is going to beat the Saints in the regular season at some point, but I really like the Saints as home dogs this week. The higher percentage of bets and money is still coming in on the Bucs so I’m holding out hope this line goes to 3 at some point. Regardless though I like what the Saints can do through the air now that Michael Thomas is back. Jameis Winston also looked great last year before getting injured in these teams first matchup last season. The Saints offense seemed to find their groove in the fourth quarter last week coming back to beat Atlanta. The Bucs on the other hand won easily, but seemed disjointed offensively especially early on settling for field goals. I think the Saints defense can continue to frustrate the Bucs and, I’m looking forward to the Mike Evans vs Marshon Lattimore matchup as well. Lattimore has had Evans number in the past and he figures to shadow him on Sunday as Chris Godwin is listed as questionable and doesn’t project to play while still nursing his hamstring injury from last week. I think if the Saints defense shows up Jameis and Co. will have no problem putting up enough points to get the job done.

Over

Commanders vs. Lions (48.5)

I like a few overs this week, but what I really like about this is that the number is a half point below 7 total touchdowns. I don’t think it’s out of the question to get that done. In fact, I think its quite doable. The Lions were part of the highest scoring game last week and are the kings of garbage time touchdowns. I also liked what I saw from Washington last week and I think they could quite easily put up 4 touchdowns again against a subpar Detroit defense. That means we would only need the Lions to score 3 to get to 49. The game is also in Detroit and I think the dome will lend itself to more scoring. For what it’s worth 85% of the money is on the over too.

Under

49ers vs. Seahawks (41)

These two teams seemed destined to compete in low scoring games this season. The Seahawks impressed on Monday Night besting the Broncos, but they didn’t score a single point in the second half. The Niners played in sloppy conditions in Chicago last week and were only able to muster 10 points. I expect San Francisco’s offense to wake up a bit, but I can’t see Seattle scoring much more than they did last week. This feels like a bounce-back spot for the 49ers. Their defense was able to hold the Bears in check for much of their game last week and I expect that to continue. Offensively I think they do just enough to win considering they’ll be down Elijah Mitchell and George Kittle is still banged up. I’ll go with a 24-13 final score for the under.

Lock of the Week

Bengals (-7) vs. Cowboys

Look, this is pretty simple. The Bengals need to come out and dominate the Cowboys after what happened to them last week. There’s blood in the water with Dallas now that Dak is down for the next few weeks and teams will look to take advantage. Cincy needs a get right game and this feels like the perfect spot to do it. Dallas was awful last week even when Dak was still playing. Give me the Bengals by double digits.