Welcome to my NFL Week 1 betting guide. Each week we are going to pick one favorite, one underdog (AKA Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week), one over, one under, and we’ll cap it off with my lock of the week. Week 1 is always tricky for betting and especially so if you’re an idiot like me. So without further ado let’s get into it.

Favorite

Ravens (-7) vs. Jets

I love the dogs this week so finding a favorite I liked was a bit tough. I don’t usually like touchdown or more favorites but, I like this spot a lot for Baltimore. They’re going to be my survivor pool pick this week as well and I think they roll the Jets even on the road. New York will be without Zach Wilson and former Raven Joe Flacco is set to make the start for the Jets. The Jets will be feisty this year but, Week 1 with a backup QB is going to be tough for them especially against a good team. I am high on the Ravens this year and, I think Lamar Jackson and company feel like they have something to prove this year after how last season ended. If Baltimore gets the ground game going and put up points early on I don’t think the Jets have enough fire power with Flacco at QB to make a comeback. I’ll take the Ravens by two touchdowns to cover the spread.

Charlie Murphy’s Habitual Line Stepper of the Week (Underdog)

Steelers (+6.5) vs. Bengals

I said it already but, I’m going to say it again I LOVE the dogs this week. I almost went a number of different ways here but, I’m going to roll with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are slightly undervalued in my opinion. They aren’t a playoff team because of how tough the AFC is but, this is still a team that went to the playoffs last year. The only major change that was made to the roster is at QB and, Big Ben was a shell of himself last year. I don’t think Mitchell Trubisky is going to set the world on fire but, if he can game manage and hold onto the ball the Steelers are going to hang around in a lot of games. Also, Mike Tomlin led teams typically perform well as underdogs against the spread. He is 45-24 ATS as an underdog during his time in Pittsburgh. On the other hand while I do think the Bengals will be good this feels like a bit of a trap and maybe even a letdown spot in Week 1 after their Super Bowl run last season. This spread to me should be more in the 3 point range and I want to take advantage of the Bengals being slightly over valued early in the season. I think the Bengals win a tight one so take the Steelers with the points.

Over

Raiders vs. Chargers (52)

I said months ago I was going to take this over in Week 1 and I’m not backing down from that now. This almost seems too obvious. Both teams did add to their defenses over the offseason but, you can’t deny the offensive firepower in this game. Starting with the Chargers, Justin Herbert is a top 5 MVP candidate and he returns much of his offense that was top 5 in total yards and points per game last season. I don’t expect them to slow down anytime soon either. In fact, I expect them to contend with the Chiefs for the AFC West division title. The Raiders on the other hand only brought in the best WR in the NFL for Derek Carr to throw to. Josh McDaniels also gives Carr a different system and look on offense and I think that’ll yield positive results for the Raiders especially in the passing game. If these teams start fast this feels like a game where we could get upwards of 60 points. Turnovers are the only thing that could throw a wrench in the total. Using the Bills/Rams game as an example, they only scored 41 combined points but Buffalo’s three first half turnovers really slowed the scoring down and kept them away from the over. If these two QBs can take care of the football I don’t see how they don’t hit this over.

Under

Patriots vs. Dolphins (46)

This is purely me not buying in yet on the Dolphins offense until I see something out of them. It’ll be Tua’s first game in a new system with a new head coach and a new number one receiver. Could they go out and score a ton of points and run the Pats out of Miami? Sure but, I don’t see it happening this early in the season. Both teams have sneaky talented defenses and I think the Patriots offensive style will milk a lot of the clock and limit the scoring. 24-21 seems very within reason for a final score and that puts us at 45 for the total. Give me the Pats 21-17 though for the under.

Lock of the Week

Panthers (-1.5) vs. Browns

I’m all in on the Baker Mayfield revenge game this weekend. When healthy I think Baker still can produce and get something out of this Panthers offense that last years slew of QBs weren’t able to. He has plenty of high level weapons in Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore to get the ball to as well. The Browns completely hung him out to dry last season forcing him to play through injuries and then used him as the scapegoat when they underperformed. He has something to prove in this game and if we get good Baker and, he brings the swag like he had against Kansas back when he was at Oklahoma it’s a lock in my eyes. The Browns without Deshaun Watson are decidedly less threatening and I think the Panthers can take advantage of that and start their season off on the right foot.