The 2022-23 NFL season is set to kick off with the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams at home against the Buffalo Bills. With that comes my weekly NFL betting guides. Each week I’ll have a post for Thursday and Monday Night Football which will include a play for the spread and the total. For Sunday’s I’ll be doing a post picking one favorite, underdog, over, under, and my lock of the week. We start the season with bang this year as two Super Bowl frontrunners clash in the season opener. This should be a fun one and on top of that a tough game to pick. Lets get started.

The Spread: Bills -2.5

My initial thought here would be to take the home underdog especially in a tight matchup but, I don’t think this game is that simple. It seems as though the experts have all but anointed the Bills as this years Super Bowl champions. Everywhere you look the predictions are the Bills over whoever the NFC has to offer. I’m not ready to buy that just yet but, this is still a very good team. Now, the Rams are as well I just like what the Bills added (and get back) to an already good team. The addition of Von Miller obviously gives the pass rush some pop (have fun paying him $20 million when he’s 39 though) plus, they get Tre White back (although he starts the season on the PUP list) as their number 1 CB. The Rams were able to add Allen Robinson to their receiving corps and Bobby Wagner on defense as well. So both teams seemingly improved but, what does that mean for this game? With Andrew Whitworth retired I think the Bills pass rush led by Miller will be able to disrupt Matthew Stafford enough to force some check down’s and ugly throws. Anything they can do to keep the ball out of Cooper Kupp’s hands the better. Offensively, I like what the Bills can do using Allen as a dual threat mixing in some designed runs. Jalen Ramsey will most likely have his hands full with Stephon Diggs and I think that opens the door for Gabriel Davis and Dawson Knox to feast with Ramsey occupied. The Rams are seeing the higher percentage of bets but, it looks like the majority of the money is on the Bills. If this line jumped up to 3 or 3.5 I’d probably take the Rams. I just don’t think 2.5 gives enough cushion for them to cover in a loss. I think the Bills win outright and the path to cover for the Rams is too difficult with this line. So I’m taking the Bills to spoil the party on Thursday night.

The Play: Bills -2.5

Over/Under: 52

This feels like a trap. Two high powered offenses kicking off the season in a shootout is just what the NFL wants. It’s almost too obvious that the over is a good bet. I just hope that doesn’t mean this total goes way under and everyone including myself ends up looking stupid. It’s tough to see a scenario where both teams don’t let it fly and score somewhere in the high 20’s each. The problem is hard to predict trends in week 1 so I’m just going off feel and how these teams looked last season. What that tells me is you have to go with the over. I’m expecting fireworks for the season opener which means we’ll probably get a 17-10 game knowing my luck. Regardless, you don’t want to be the person taking the under if these two score a ton of points. You have to take the over.

The Play: Over 52

Final Prediction

With my picks of Bills -2.5 and Over 52 I’m going to go with Bills 31 Rams 27.