This will serve as the first installment of many NFL betting advice blogs. During the season you can expect weekly posts for betting advice on Thursday Night Football, best bets for the Sunday slate, and Monday Night Football. Here we are going to look at each division (Starting with the AFC) and pick the best bet to win each division based on value and how realistic their chances are at winning said division. Now let me specify, this isn’t a prediction blog. This is an advice blog on where you’ll get the best bang for your buck betting division futures. We’re going to take some risks here so let’s dive in.

AFC East

The Odds: Bills -240, Dolphins +375, Patriots +600, Jets +2000

We’ll start with a tough one. You’ll really have to pay up to get a good return out of taking the Bills here, but it’s tough to see a scenario in which they don’t win the division. The AFC runner-ups from two seasons ago were an OT coinflip away from a very real shot at playing in the Super Bowl last season. While they lost offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, they’ve retained much of the roster that won 11 games last season. You have to think they’ll finish somewhere in that range again this season. When you look at the Dolphins they have a talented roster, but it all comes down to one question: Do you trust Tua? He might prove me wrong, but as of now I’m not a believer so the Dolphins are out for me here. The Jets will probably improve on last season, but they aren’t winning the division. That leaves the Patriots at +600 as our challenger to the Bills. Hand up here I am a die hard Patriots fan. I think Mac Jones takes a big step next season, and the Pats continue to build on what was a solid 2021 campaign under the rookie QB. Is this going to be enough to unseat the Bills though? Even I know it’s going to be tough for the Patriots, but I do love that value. I’m addicted to the plus sign though, so I’m going to cop out here and say if you’re comfortable paying up for a future take the Bills, but for purposes of the blog I’m being a homer and taking the Patriots for the value.

The Play: Patriots +600

AFC North

The Odds: Ravens +130, Bengals, +175, Browns, +425, Steelers +800

For me this division is a two team race. Right off the bat the Steelers will be playing with either Mitchell Trubisky or rookie Kenny Pickett at QB. They’re not winning the division this year, but I’m sure Mike Tomlin will find some way to squeeze 9 wins out of them because that’s just what he does. The Browns should be a good team, but at the end of the day it is the Browns. At this point with a suspension for Deshaun Watson looming the Browns have to be out. That leaves the Ravens and the Bengals. Cincinnati won the division last year and made an impressive run to the Super Bowl. The AFC champs made improvements along their offensive line which was a glaring need for them last season. The Ravens on the other hand were able to grab the highest graded players at their positions in Kyle Hamilton (Saftey) and Tyler Linderbaum (Center) in the first round of the draft. What I keep coming back to is the fact that the Ravens were sitting as the number one seed in AFC prior to Lamar’s injury. After that they lost six straight opening the door for the Bengals to win the division. The difference between the two teams odds is negligible, so this is a little different than picking the East. Basically, I’m picking who I think actually will win the division and I can’t help but think if Lamar is healthy for the whole season that there’s no reason the Ravens won’t take this division. The Bengals won’t make it easy, but I have to go with Baltimore here.

The Play: Ravens +130

AFC South

The Odds: Colts -140, Titans +165, Jaguars +850, Texans +2200

Right off the bat, I’m going to do the obvious and just eliminate the Jaguars and the Texans. This is as clear as a two team race as you can get between the Colts and the Titans. Last year, the Colts surged after an 0-3 start sitting at 9-6 after a win over the Cardinals on Christmas Day. Seemingly poised to make the playoffs, they dropped their final two contests including Week 18 at Jacksonville. Now, a lot of the faults this team had last year can be attributed to the erratic play of Carson Wentz. This offseason the Colts continued their revolving door of veteran QBs by bringing in Matt Ryan. I think Ryan will be an upgrade for the Colts, and the roster they have will support him well. The Titans on the other hand, return much of the roster that won the division and held the 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last season. I think the biggest question that surrounds them this year is what does Ryan Tannehill look like? He’s been good since arriving in Tennessee, but saw a dip in production last year including less yards and TD’s in a 17 game season as well as throwing 14 INT’s. When deciding who to take in this division you more or less have to pick who you think is going to win and roll with it. The Colts -140 line isn’t going to deter me if I really think they can win the division. So with that being said, I think because the Colts upgraded at QB and I foresee some regression for Tannehill. I’d pay up a bit and take the Colts here even as the favorite. The Titans at +165 isn’t a strong enough return for me to risk taking them here when I feel good about the Colts.

The Play: Colts -140

AFC West

The Odds: Chiefs +170, Chargers +225, Broncos +260, Raiders +575

Now let’s finish the AFC with probably the toughest division to pick in the NFL. Two playoff teams from last year (Chiefs and Raiders), a team that should’ve gotten in if they didn’t get greedy in Week 18 and played for a tie (Chargers), and a 7 win team with a great defense that added a future HOF QB (Broncos). The Chiefs are still the favorite here, but for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era this team may have actually regressed talent-wise this offseason. Losing Tyreek Hill will undoubtedly be tough, but you still have to assume Mahomes will make it work with his current WR corps plus he still has Travis Kelce. The Chargers made some serious upgrades to their defense adding Kahlil Mack and JC Jackson this offseason. I am cautiously high on the Chargers this year. I imagine Justin Herbert only continues to improve and we already know they can score, but the additions to the defense make them tempting. The Broncos I’m not as high on though. While I wouldn’t be shocked if they did put it together, I think they have to prove it first and show they can challenge the Chiefs for the top spot. That leaves the Raiders, a team I think will have a good season, but I just can’t see taking them over one of the top two teams. What I do like is the Raiders at +170 to make the playoffs they feel like a team that can sneak in like they did last year. That leaves the Chiefs and the Chargers. Something keeps telling me that there will be slight regression from the Chiefs leaving the door open for someone else to steal the West. That doesn’t necessarily mean I think the Chiefs 100% don’t win the division, but it feels like the division will be decided by 1 game. So with that being said, I’ll assume the risk and take the Chargers for the better payout.

The Play: Chargers +225

Stay Tuned for Part 2 where we’ll look at the NFC.